GWO Daily Note: 9/3/2019
Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition
For Trading September 4th
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Today’s market was lower from the get-go, and by 11:00 we had hit the low -425. Mostly the selloff was influenced by the ISM number which showed a decline into the “contraction” range below 50. The China trade issues certainly didn’t help. BA didn’t help either with the company expressing some question as to when the 737 MAX will actually go back into production and be recertified for flight. Just after the open BA was the biggest drag on the DJIA at -80 DPs. The ISM number also sent rates lower, also a big negative for the market. Oil continued to fall and after trying to hold $54.00, broke through and moved below $53.00. All that said, the S&P was down just over half of the DJIA or NAZ. At the close we were – 285.26 (1.08%), NASDAQ -88.72 (1.11%), S&P 500 -20.19 (.69%), the Russell -22.56 (1.51%), and the DJ Transports – 133.72 (1.32%). Advance/decline on the NYSE was 1.8:1 down while NAZ was 2.5:1. The DJIA was 21 down, 9 up with none of the gainers in double digits. The biggest losers were BA -66, GS -33, HD & UNH -23, AAPL & MMM -21 and AXP -19 DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is:https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: Before the open we had several early movers in both directions. On the plus side we had news from Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) on a deal to “commercialize” Rezafunginantifungal that is also used as prophylaxis of invasive fungal infections for patients undergoing blood and bone marrow transplantation. The stock, down from an all-time high around $19, closed the day Friday at $1.68 gapped up to open $3.03, traded $3.09 but fell back to close on the lows $2.35 still +.67 (39.88%). Conn’s, a discount and rent to own retailer reported a beat both top and bottom lines. Before a miss in Q3 last year the stock traded $42.65 but had fallen back to $15.40 in June gapped higher and closed $23.85 +3.69 (18.30%). Also in the medical space, MDCO, The Medicines Company, announced results of a Phase 3 trial for a twice-yearly cholesterol therapy and the stock, which had already turned higher from $20 late last year, and up from $31.15 last month continued higher today closing near its high today at $46.31 (10.37%).
AMZN got an upgrade with a new price objective of $2,600 up from 2,250 at RBC. It was the only FAANG stock higher today finishing $1,787 +10.71 (.60%). Both of the ride-sharing companies made new all-time lows on the news that California is moving closer to classifying drivers as employees instead of contractors. UBER finished $30.70 – 1.87 (5.74%). This is a huge loss for Softbank, who is now under water on all of its investment. LYFT, which had a much more successful IPO, trading $88.60 (up from pricing of $72), finished $45.42 -3.55 (7.25%).
After the close we had a report that Starboard took a 7.5% stake in BOX, one of my former favorites. The stock has been weak, to say the least coming down in large chunks and with poor earnings from the high of $24.93 in March to make a new low last Thursday at $12.46, but bouncing higher on the buying to close the day $14.85 +.22 (1.5%). The news of the stake sent the stock higher in extended hours to a high of $17.05, with the last of $16.00 +1.16 (7.82%).
Last, we have the Big Winner even on this down day, Ardelyx, Inc., (ARDX) reported positive Phase 3 studies for their new “first in class” drug for chronic Kidney Disease. It met all key endpoints with AMPLIFY, and the stock, which traded $2.10 mid-August, had worked its way back to close $3.40 Friday opened $4.01 today and finished the day $5.82 +2.42 (71.18%) and is now $6.06. EVEN ON A BAD DAY…
BIO/PHARMA:stocks wereLOWERwith the only winner, BHC +.29 (1.36%), and the biggest losers ISRG -17.40 (3.4%), INCY -1.76 (2.15%), ICPT -2.81 (4.38%), and LABU -2.37 (6.43%). IBB finished $101.15 -1.78 (1.73%).
CANNABIS:stocks wereHIGHERwith TLRY +4.02 (15.66%), CGC +1.17 (4.96%), CRON +.38 (3.45%), GWPH +.53, ACB +.20, PYX -.09, APHA +.18, NBEV +.04, ACFGF +.35 (4.8%), CURLF +.53 (7.51%), KERN -.10 and MJ $24.40 +.39 (1.62%).
DEFENSE:wasLOWERwith LMT + .58, RTN -3.23, GD -5.27, TXT -1.36, UTX -1.27, NOC -1.64, BWXT +.24, TDY +.72 and ITA $220.00 -1.81 (.82%).
RETAIL:wasLOWERwith all of the brands down. Only WMT +.32 and DDS +.25 were higher and the biggest losers were JCP - .03 (4.53%), kss -1.21 (2.56%), JWN -.59 (2.04%), M -.34 (2.3%), and in the brands LULU -5.17 (2.8%), CPRI -.81 (3.07%), and XRT $39.16 -.61 (1.53%).
FAANG and Big Cap:were LOWERwith GOOGL -20.98, AMZN (see above), AAPL -2.58, FB -3.17, NFLX -4.60, NVDA -3.61, TSLA -.24, BABA -2.59, BIDU -1.69, BOX (see above), IBM -1.43, BA -9.98, CAT -1.95 and XLK $78.58 -.95 (1.19%).
FINANCIALS: wereLOWERThe closes were GS -4.91, JPM -1.30, BAC -.50, MS -.50, C -.93, PNC -2.17, AIG +.36, TRV +.61, AXP -2.77 and XLF $26.63 -.29 (1.08%).
OIL, $53.94 -1.16.The Oil seems to have made another series of lower highs against the overhead supply just over $57.00. After another failed attempt at $57 on Friday we turned down and finished -1.61, and today when we broke below $54 it didn’t take long to move below $53 (52.84) before a rally to close roughly $1.00 higher. The stocks were mixed but the overall theme was lower prices. The XLE finished $57.09 -.39 (.68%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,555.90 +26.50.Gold has continued to move higher on the basis of both sovereign and individual buying. The market had been overbought when it traded to $1,565 and fell back to support @ $1,535 before today’s move back down to $1,528. It’s hard to be a buyer so far from the 20-day moving average, but any move back near $1,520 would get me back in. In the meantime, in today’s action the Silver was a dramatic outperformance with the Gold +1.6% while Silver was $19.237 +.895 or 4.9%.
BITCOIN: closed $10,800 +1,150.Today’s move just reinforces my bullish stance on Bitcoin. We tested the support around $9,500, held, and today’s move puts the chart in the bullish camp. We still need a close over $10,945 to break us back to the upside. We own two positions of 250 GBTC @ $9.36 and 500 @ $12.10. We closed out 250 of the $9.36 shares at $16.78 for a gain of $1,855 and GBTC finished $12.93 +1.21.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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