GWO Daily Note9/4/2019
Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition
For Trading September 5th
Like a See Saw
Did China Blink?
I Doubt it
SILVER OUTPERFORMS
Yet Again
RATES CONTINUED TO FALL
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Lack of bad news and news from China (Hong Kong) sent the market higher again today. As usual, the high for the day of +222 occurred in the first 15 minutes of trading and then we spent the rest of the day between going sideways in a tight (relative term) range until the close when we made a nominal new high and finished the day +237.45 (.91%), NASDAQ +102.72 (1.3%), S&P 500 +31.51 (1.08%), the Russell +12.47 (.85%), and the DJ Transports +119.79 (1.2%). Market internals were NYSE A/D 4.2:1 while NAZ was 2.1:1. Volume remained light. The trade deficit narrowed slightly but the goods and services number continued higher to $28.2 Billion, an 8.2% gain, showing that the tariff actions have yet to have taken hold. Mortgage applications followed last week’s decline of 6.2% with another dip of 3.1%. DJIA was 27 up and only 3 down, but the loser was UNH -27 DPs. The biggest gainer was AAPL +23, with the rest all adding less than 18DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is:https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: Before the open we had several early movers in both directions. On the plus side we had news from OPGN, OpGen, a molecular diagnostic company will issue stock and combine with Curetis N.V., and while I’m not exactly sure what that means (there is little info on either) the stocks of both were higher. OPGN was reversed 1:20 just 4 days ago and the stock, down from an adjust high of $40.60 in January and a low of $4.40 opened the day @ $10.30, traded 12.80 but finished the day $8.02 +1.50 (23%) but well off the highs.
Back in the real world we had several recognizable names lower their guidance going forward with SBUX telling the street that they will not do as well as in 2020 as they reported 2 months ago. The stock opened lower and traded $93.03 -3.74 (4%) but managed to finish the day $96.11 -.66 (.68%). Tyson (TSN) wasn’t quite so lucky disclosing that they are facing margin pressures, a mark to market on grain derivatives, enhanced food safety initiatives, and a beef processing plant fire, and they will miss Q4 numbers. The stock, which moved up from $78.66 in early August to over $94 last week opened $90.57 and moved lower to $85.97 before finishing $86.06 -7.23 (7.75%).
Also on the downside was American Eagle Outfitters, which topped out last August around $30.00 but has been in a decided downtrend since, opened the day with a gap lower to $14.20 and sank to $13.66 and finished $14.38 -1.89 (11.62%), after actually beating top and bottom line but lowered guidance.
On the upside was MIK, Michaels beat and gave decent guidance and the stock was rewarded with an up open at $6.81, a high of $7.13 and closed $6.26 +.66 (11.79%).
After the close we had Slack (WORK) report for the first time since going public with a “direct listing” in June with a “guide” price of $26.00 that opened $38.50, traded to $42, but has fallen since to make a low of $27.91 yesterday and closed the day today at $31.07 +2.31 (8.03%, but when they reported it had a spike to $33.32 on the headline gain in revenues and number of users, before giving poor guidance and it fell like a rock to $25.82, and is currently $26.80.
Palo Alto Networks (PAWN) beat on revenues but went from a profit of $ .07 to a loss of $ .22 (after a share-based compensation charge that would have been a beat and a profit of $1.47/share + .05). The market didn’t like the report and after trading 203.53 it fell to $179.15 but turned around during the conference call finishing $213.51 with a range of $39.35….WOW…
BIO/PHARMA:stocks wereHIGHERwith the only losers BHC (again) -.22 (1.2%), VRTX -1.87 (1.05%), and INCY -2.44 (3.05%) with the only news that it was presenting at ESMO later this month. The biggest gainers were MYL +.47 (2.44%), LABU +.62 (1.8%), and ICPT +2.61 (4.25%). IBB finished $101.21 +.06 (.06%).
CANNABIS:stocks wereLOWERwith a reversal of yesterday’s gains. TLRY -.10, CGC -.22, CRON -.26, GWPH -9.03 (6.32%)also with no news except making a presentation at MS meeting 9/11. ACB -.08, PYX -.09, APHA +.26, NBEV -.03, ACRGF -53 (6.93%), CURLF +.10, KERN -.23 (2.75%) and MJ $24.36 -.29 (1.18%).
DEFENSE:wasHIGHERwith LMT + 4.39, RTN +1.31, GD +1.43, TXT +.81, UTX +2.08, NOC +5.83, BWXT -.31, TDY +6.58, and ITA $221.59 +2.15 (.98%).
RETAIL:wasHIGHERwith all of the brands up. M +.51, JWN +1.13, KSS +.83, DDS +1.47, JCP +.01, WMT +1.27, TGT +.84, TJX +.13, RL +2.86, UAA +.34, LULU +2.71, NKE +1.68, TPR +1.05, CPRI +.89, XRT +39.57 +.41 (1.05%).
FAANG and Big Cap:were HIGHERwith TSLA the only loser -4.01. GOOGL +12.72, AMZN +11.76, AAPL +3.30, FB +4.52, NFLX +1.71, NVDA +4.83, BABA +2.09, BIDU -.02, BOX +1.85 (12.46%), IBM +2.20, BA +2.08, CAT +2.07 and XLK $79.96 +1.40 (1.78%).
FINANCIALS: wereHIGHERThe closes were GS +3.16, JPM +1.31, BAC +.41, MS +.46, C +.86, PNC +1.81, AIG +2.05, TRV +2.59, AXP +.80, and XLF $26.90 +.26 (.98%).
OIL, $56.26 +2.32.The Oil seems to have made another series of lower highs against the overhead supply just over $57.00. After another failed attempt at $57 on Friday we turned down and finished -1.61, and yesterday when we broke below $54 it didn’t take long to move below $53 (52.84) before a rally to close roughly $1.00 higher. Today, however we started higher and the move kept building all day. We are still under the all-important $57.00 level. The stocks were higher. The XLE finished $58.00 +.80 (1.4%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,560.40 +4.50.Gold has continued to move higher on the basis of both sovereign and individual buying. The market had been overbought when it traded to $1,565 and fell back to support @ $1,535 before today’s move back down to $1,528. It’s hard to be a buyer so far from the 20-day moving average, but any move back near $1,520 would get me back in. In the meantime, in today’s action the Silver was a dramatic outperformance with the Gold + .002% while Silver was $19.547 +.31 or 1.6%.
BITCOIN: closed $10,835 +35.Today’s move just reinforces my bullish stance on Bitcoin. We tested the support around $9,500, held, and today’s move puts the chart in the bullish camp. We still need a close over $10,945 to break us back to the upside. We own two positions of 250 GBTC @ $9.36 and 500 @ $12.10. We closed out 250 of the $9.36 shares at $16.78 for a gain of $1,855 and GBTC finished $13.15 +.22.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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