GWO Daily Note 9/12/2019
Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition
For Trading September 13th
GOLD Races Higher & Falters
Rates Edge Higher
No Smiles for Smile Direct!
10X Genomics Soars
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market started slightly higher and tried the downside just before 10:00, and then it was off to the races again. By 10:15 we had touched +160, again heading back to unchanged by 11:00 and then the steady climb back to the highs of the day but unfortunately the last hour we sold off to finish the day only + 45.41 (.17%), NASDAQ +24.79 (.30%), S&P 500 +8.64 (.29%), the Russell -.65 (.04%) and the DJ Transports -47.25 (.44%). A/D on NYSE were just 1:1 and 17:14 on the NAZ. The DJIA was split 21:9 with only V + 20DPs, while the rest were mostly under double-digits, and on the downside we had BA -48 and UNH -28DP’s. AAPL was only -4, but during the day it was +20DPs. We also had 2 IPOs. Both were thought to be “hot” but only one lived up to its Rep. 10X Genomics was priced at $39 and opened $54. After a trading range of $58.00 to $51.00 it closed $52.75 + 13.75 (35.2%) over the pricing. Smile Direct was “thought” to have garnered some major demand and was originally indicated $19 -$22 but priced last night @ $23.00, just above the top of the range. However, when it did open, it was $20.55 and after managing to move to $21.10, it faltered badly. After a steep and relentless decline, it finished the day $16.67 -6.33 (27.5%). This was clearly the WORST performance for a so-called “Unicorn.” Align, ALGN, one of its main competitors which had a 10-year rise from $1.25 to a shade under $400 in late 2018 has fallen to close today $174.62 -5.15 (2.86%).
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is:https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
I also did a short update on our 8 Stocks for Total Return and it is available with the following link: http://www.crweworld.com/article/finance/1234472/gwo-daily-note-special-edition ...
SECTORS: Other names in the news: The last time I saw a merger that worked out this badly it was Sears and Kmart. The merger between Men’s Wearhouse and Joseph A. Banks, now trading under the symbol TLRD (Tailored Brands) could not look worse. After reporting numbers that slightly beat FactSet expectations, the company cut out the dividend and reported falling sales and further gave lowered guidance for Q3. The stock at the date of the merger was $58 (3/2014) managed a rally to $66 in 2015 before starting its 6-month decline to $10, followed by a 3-year range of $9.00 –a recovery high of $35 in 5/2018. Since then the stock has declined to finish today $5.02 -2.15 (29.99%). If you’ve owned it, you’ve been hurt pretty badly, and as ex-CEO George Zimmer would say, “I guarantee it!” Also in the apparel business, Duluth Holdings, DLTH, maker of those commercials for their underwear and work clothes, also reported a miss on top and bottom lines and gave poor guidance. The company also lost its CEO recently and blames the decline on China trade issue, but also said that they will slow their retail expansion in 2020. The stock traded as high as the mid $30’s in late 2016 and again last fall, has fallen to new lows early this month around $8.36 but bounced back to close yesterday $11.08. After the report last night, it opened today $9.93 and after trading $9.01, it finished $9.81 -1.21 (10.98%).
Broadcom (AVGO) beat street expectations but left their guidance unchanged and after closing $300.58 + 2.57, and having a pop on the headline up to $308, sold off to $293 and is currently $295.76 -4.92 (1.64%). ORCL, which fell last night on the early release of their numbers and the announcement of the leave of absence of Mark Hurd for medical reasons had climbed back in late trading, but this morning succumbed to the anxiety of the problems and gave back to late gains. The stock finished the day $53.89 – 2.40 (4.26%).
BIO/PHARMA:stocks wereMIXEDwith the biggest winner being BHC (formerly Valeant, now Bausch Health) finished the day + .66 (2.86%), followed by ABBV +1.35 (1.94%). TEVA, a recent gainer was -.22 (2.64%), BIIB -3.65, INCY -2.41 (3.07%), and LABU -.92 (2.26%). The IBB was $104.15 -.61 (.58%).
CANNABIS:stocks wereLOWERwith all of the names lower. The biggest loser was Aurora Cannabis: ACB, which missed on its numbers and was $5.86 -.63 (9.71%). It was followed by GWPH -7.84 (5.22%), and CURLF -.47 (6%) and MJ $25.08 -.63 (2.45%).
DEFENSE:wasHIGHERwith LMT +5.95, RTN +4.38, GD +.41, TXT -.57, UTX +1.51, NOC +6.37, BWXT -.16, TDY +4.31, and ITA $226.50 +.80 (.35%).
RETAIL:wasLOWERwith the brands faring better. The big loser was JCP, which yesterday was up on the new SVP of finance and lower today on an S&P downgrade of the bonds. It finished $1.08 -.17 (13.6%). The stores were M -.47 (2.65%), JWN -.43 (1.23%), KSS +.04, DDS -3.07 (4.41%), WMT +.63, TGT +.32, TJX +.05, RL +.22, UAA +.09, LULU +2.32 (1.18%), NKE +.92, CPRI +.16, and XRT $43.53 -.35 (.80%).
FAANG and Big Cap:were MIXEDwith GOOGL +14.97, AMZN +20.50, AAPL -.79, FB -.99, NFLX +.63, NVDA -.33, BABA +2.22, BIDU -.45, BOX -.06, IBM -.14, BA -7.29, CAT -1.49, and XLK $81.72 +.40 (.49%).
FINANCIALS: wereHIGHERwith the stocks moving again with rates. GS +1.60, JPM +.75, BAC +.21, MS +.38, C +.32, PNC +1.17, AIG +.16, TRV +2.07, AXP +1.02, and XLF $28.26 +.14 (.50%).
OIL, $55.09 -.66.The Oil made another assault on the $58.00 level yesterday (58.30) before the announcement that the Mr. Trump was considering the lifting of some Iran sanctions and some more talk on China trade. After punching down to $54.00, we started to come back and I bought a small position in UCO calls around $ .43, looking for a bounce back for a tradable rally. You can check the Discord room for the charts that discuss this move by using the link on the top of page 2. My primary focus, as laid out in this week’s Weekly Strategies is the Natural Gas market. Prices were lower today closing $2.574 + .022, and I am looking for a place to buy UNG to participate. Most of the stocks on my list were lower with XLE finishing $60.63 - .35 (.45%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,507.40 + 4.20.Gold rallied hard at the release of PPI numbers this morning touching $1,532 + 28 before coming back down to earth. I was very disappointed in the pullback, but am still looking for a buy point between $1475 and $1480. As I mentioned in my video (#112) I believe Silver will outperform the gold during this leg of the move. Silver finished the day $18.177 + .007.
BITCOIN: closed $10,410 +285.Today’s quiet day had little meaning to me and I am still quite bullish, however I feel like we may be running out of time for this formation to send us higher right now. We still need a close over $10,945 to break us back to the upside. We own two positions of 250 GBTC @ $9.36 and 500 @ $12.10. We closed out 250 of the $9.36 shares at $16.78 for a gain of $1,855 and GBTC finished $12.68 + .40.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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