GWO Daily Note 10/30/2019
Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition
For Trading October 31st
AAPL & FB BEAT
Has GE Turned?
Fed, As Expected
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Today’s market was pretty much what we have grown to expect from a Fed decision day, unchanged open and a move to a minor low -72 by 10:00, followed by a little bounce back to the unchanged line and featureless action until the announcement, again not much action until the press conference until everyone was sure there was no REAL news and a melt up to close right near the highs +115.27 (.43%), NASDAQ +27.12 (.33%), S&P 500 +9.88 (.33%), the Russell -4.22 (.27%), and the DJ Transports a big loser -190.57 (1.76%). Market internals were again, just over 1:1 and the DJIA was split 20:10 Up today with the big winners MCD +29 and JNJ +20 DPs and the big loser BA -20DPs. There were several good and bad earnings today that I’ll go into below.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is:https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: Today’s earnings were led early on with a big surprise from GE, beating and sending prices up to $10.85 in the pre-market trading and closing $10.08 + 1.01 (11.14%), CROCS: CROX also beat and it too moved higher, gapping up and closing $38.53 +5.20 (15.6%), prices not seen in the name since it fell from all-time highs over $75 back in 2007.
Unfortunately, at least for the early morning reports, that was it for the upside. TUP missed on all metrics and gave exceedingly poor guidance and after a 2009 low of $10.91 and a 4 year run up to $97.14, today’s close completes the roundtrip to close $10.16 -6.14 (37.67%). YUM missed even though KFC was a big winner and the stock managed to close on its high of the day but still lower by $6.38 (5.81%).
The big loser in the DJ Transports was logistics and shipping company fell to $77.08 -13.44 (14.85%). ENPH, the semi-equipment company reported last night and the stock, up from under $1.00 in 2017 has fallen from $35 to close today $18.76 -6.43 (25.53%). AMAG Pharma had the FDA withdraw an approval for their drug for pre-term births. The stock was down from $77 in 2015, fell to $9.26 and managed a close on the high @ $10.35 -2.98 (22%).
After the close we had the big guys report. AAPL beat and had improved margins and growing service numbers. After closing $243.26 -.03 after yesterday’s decline of $5.76, but today traded in the extended hours as high as $252.50 and finished $248.19 +4.93 (2%). FB also beat on the bottom line and blew away revenues +29%. Although Mr. Z mentioned the “A” word (antitrust) and said the next year will be tough year for political discourse, the stock, which closed $188.25, traded as high as $200 before finishing $196.64 + 8.61 (4.5%). LYFT also beat top and bottom and gave good guidance and after closing $44.11 +.43 it traded up to $47.75, back down to $42.50 and then settled $45.10 +.99.
And last, another loser, MMSI, Merit Medical Systems reported a gain of 9.6% on revenues but produced a surprise loss vs. last year’s profit and gave extremely poor guidance. The stock, with an adjusted low of $2.00 after 4 splits between 2001 and 2004 had topped out around $66 in 2018 has fallen from a recent high of $6163.63 in mid-April to close the day today $29.11 -.99, fell to a low of $18.50 before finishing $19.40 – 9.68 (33.8%).
BIO/PHARMA:stocks wereHIGHERCELG +1.06, BIIB +2.75, ABBV +1.43 (1.82%), REGN +.54, ISRG +.15, MYL -.18, TEVA -.18 (2.15%), VRTX -1.88, BHC +.42, INCY +.31, ICPT -.09, LABU -.54, and IBB $107.60 +.15 (.14%).
CANNABIS:stocks wereLOWERwith CURLF the big loser -.23 (4.23%), and ACRGF the winner +.13 (2.25%) and MJ $19.43 -.13 (.66%).
DEFENSE:wasHIGHER with LMT +7.90 (2.13%), RTN +2.67, GD +2.21, TXT -.43, UTX +1.84, NOC +6.91 (2%), BWXT +.04, TDY +6.53 (2%), and ITA $221.42 +1.37 (.62%).
RETAILwasLOWERwith the stores down but most of the brands higher. The big losers were JWN -2.01 (5.42%), KSS -2.26 (4.19%), DDS -3.37 (4.51%), and TJX +1.05 (1.83%), and the brands RL +.50, UAA -.05, LULU +.27, NKE +1.00, TPR +.38 and XRT $43.68 -.34 (.77%).
FAANG and Big Cap:were HIGHERwith GOOGL +1.55, AMZN +22.19, AAPL (see above), FB see above), NFLX +10.89 (3.87%), NVDA +.82, TSLA -.82, BABA +1.76, BIDU +.08, BOX +.17, IBM +1.43, BA -2.14, CAT -.98 and XLK $83.72 +.51 (.61%).
FINANCIALS wereLOWERwith GS -1.14, JPM -.67, BAQC -.42, MS -.22 C +.03, PNC -.54, AIG +.51, TRV +.81, AXP +.28 and XLF $28.84 -.02 (.07%).
OIL, $55.06 -.48. Today’s action was lower, in fact making a lower low than yesterday and finishing mid-range. This sent our position in the XLE 11/58.50 puts to close $1.10 +.56. The stocks were lower with XLE closed $58.21 – 1.21 (2.04%).
Prices for Natural gas were higher again today and closed $2.691 + .052. We have already tested support on the bounce from 2.40 and we have rallied to hit just over $2.72 today. Our TELL 11/9 calls @ $ .45 were stopped out today.
METALS,GOLD: $1,496.70 + 6.00,today’s action was a test of $1,485 and it has fallen out of the up-trend line. If we continue to test the $1,480 level, I will get long again.
BITCOIN: closed $9,270 -45.We broke to the downside last week but turned sharply higher recovering over $2,655 since breaking $7,500. We were stopped out of the GBTC position and I bought back 350 of the 750 I want to own @ $9.45, keying off the 200-day MA down at $8.70.and we rallied and with a low of 9.25 and a high of $10.28, I added another 400 GBTC at $9.83, and they closed $10.84. -.15.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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