GWO Daily Note 12/30/2019
Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition
For Trading December 31st
Sellers Take Control
Midday Bounce Fails
Bonds Rally Off Lows
RAD Falls Back To Earth
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Today’s market started off slightly to the downside as futures were weak overnight. We started right around unchanged but by 10:30 we were at the lows of the day -216, and then spent until 1:00 grinding higher to make it back to the H.O.D. -76, and then fell back to -210 in late trading, finally closing -183.12 (.64%), NASDAQ -60.63 (.67%). S&P 500 -18.73 (.58%), the Russell down for the second day -4.88 (.29%) and the DJ Transports -63.12 (.57%). Internals were week, but not terribly at NYSE 4:3 lower and NAZ 3:2 down. The DIA was a dramatic 29:1 DOWN with only AAPL higher adding only 11 DPs. The biggest losers were BA -25, HD -18, IBM -17 and UNH -15 DP’s. As I’ve written both here and in the Weekly Strategies, this market is well overbought and needs (and deserves) a rest of either a pullback or at least some relatively sideways action to work off the gains. We have gotten a bit of a reprieve lately as we get to year-end, and buying continued. Sellers seemed to want to hold off taking gains this year, especially in the biggest names with the biggest gains, but not everyone got the memo. As I have mentioned, I believe that the consumer has downgraded their buying in favor of the discounters like WMT, TGT, TJX, and ROST, as well as even the nest level down, like FIVE, DLTR and DG, leaving the majors to heavily discount just to move inventory. We won’t know for a few weeks if that is the case, but consumer debt is at very high levels, and that’s the group that the talking heads have told everyone has helped buoy business. It certainly hasn’t been industrials and manufacturing. Again: CAUTION IS REQUIRED.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is:https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news:Several times last week I discussed the dramatic rise in RAD. Here’s the story:
RiteAid (RAD), also a major turnaround to actual earning that was reversed 1:20 in April had already worked its way from $5.02 in August to close last Wednesday $8.32, and blasted higher to close $11.84 +3.52 (42.31%). It continued higher again every day since and today finished $19.19 +3.05 (19.8%) and traded as high as $21.30 in extended hours. Besides the earnings last week, the stock was recommended by Zack’s this morning, but I think more important is the fact that there is a 26.6% short interest in the stock. We got short the stock on Friday with the purchase of puts as well as an actual short of 300 at $22.52 after the stock had made its new intraday high of $23.88, a move of over 300% in 8 trading days. The stock closed on the low on Friday at $20.30 +1.11, having left a gap to the upside for the day. This morning’s gap to the downside left what I think is an “island reversal” and if you saw my comments on page 6 in yesterday’s Weekly Strategies, you can see I was looking for $17. We bought back 100 each at $17.89, 16.95, and 16.51 for a total gain of $16.02. I may have been a little early, since if that reversal holds we could see single digits again. It finished $15.99 -4.31 (21.23%).
There was good news for patients of Pancreatic Cancer as the FDA approved a drug from MRK and AZN (AstraZenaca) but the stocks which were both higher early finished to the downside with the market. Part of the issue was that the FDA recommendation occurred 2 weeks ago and both stocks had moved higher since then.
And, the HOMERUN OF THE DAYwas Savara (SVRA) who was granted a “Breakthrough Therapy Designation” for Molgradex, for treatment of Autoimmune Pulmonary Alveolar Proteinosis. The stock has been around since 2004 and has been reversed twice, 1:25 in 2010, and 1:70 in 2017, giving it an adjusted high of $9,415 in 2006, fell from $11.38 to 2.62 in April of this year and had closed $1.73 on Friday and opened today $4.14, traded to $5.20 and finished $4.91 + $3.18 (183.82%) and has traded $6.25 in extended hours tonight. The last is $5.56 +3.83 or 221%.
BIOPHARMA:wasLOWERwith BIIB -4.08, ABBV -.68, REGN +.38, ISRG -6.56, MYL -.23, TEVA -.24, VRTX -2.00, BHC -.28, INCY -.34, ICPT -.29, LABU -2.61 and IBB $119.94 -1.62 (1.33%).
CANNABIS:stocks wereLOWERwith TLRY -.57, CGC -.42, CRON -.25, GWPH +1.08, ACB unchanged, PYX +.68, APHA -.17, NBEV -.03, ACRGF -.72, CURLF +.15, KERN -.21 and MJ $16.21 -.49 (1.92%). This may be a good group for January trades after tax-selling.
DEFENSE:wasMIXED with LMT -1.70, RTN -.77, GD -1.48, TXT +.13, UTX -.40, NOC +2.63, BWXT -.09, TDY +.55 and ITA $222.93 -.80 (.38%).
RETAILwasMIXEDwith M +.26, JWN -.24, KSS -.32, DDS +.85, JCP -.01, WMT -.19, TGT -.32, TJX +.30, KR +.30, RL -.83, UAA -.42, LULU +.63, TPR -.29, CPRI +.02 and XRT $45.93 -.31 (.67%).
FAANG and Big Cap:were LOWERacross the board with AAPL +1.64 the only exception. GOOGL -15.84, AMZN -24.20, FB -3.59, NFLX -6.09, NVDA -4.87, TSLA -17.38(4.04%), BABA -2.47, BIDU -.16, BOX -.27, IBM -2.46, BA -3.45, CAT -.76 and XLK $91.38 -.53 (.58%).
FINANCIALS wereLOWERwith GS -.86, JPM -.49, BAC -.20, MS -.13, C -.07, PNC -.79, AIG -.07, TRV -.31, AXP -.89, and XLF $30.68 -.09 (.29%).
OIL, $61.68 + .04. Today’s action was a rally to $62.34 before settling back to just slightly higher. The stocks wereLOWER with the profit taking in the general market and XLE was $59.78 -1.90 (3.08%).
METALS,GOLD: $1,518.60 +.50after breaking out “of the box” earlier in the week, and has moved higher, and is now approaching the resistance around the $1,520 to $1,525 range. Today’s action was a short range “inside” day without any real direction.
BITCOIN: closed $7385 + 45.We broke to the upside but ran into a brick wall just under $8,000. I was very disappointed to see the break, although we are right back to the lower Bollinger Band. After having a GTC order @ $9.85 since we sold on 11/5, we finally got filled on the first 350 shares. I added 400 GBTC at $8.06 bringing the average down to $8.99. GBTC closed $8.45 -.13 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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