Thursday was down from the start with the low of down 118 in the Dow was made about 11:15 and the rally back to the highs of the day occurred over the next hour. From that point on we went dead and the only index actually going positive at the close was the S&P500 and only by $1.04. Market internals were 1.3:1 negative ion NYSE and 1.6.1 negative on NASDAQ. Really not decisive in either case since volume on both was barely 1.2:1 neg. On top of that, the A.A.I.I. numbers are now really out of line with both the bullish and bearish numbers UNDER their historic norms. While bullish was up 4.8% it is still a full 10 pts (25%) under its average, and bearish was down 9.2%% to 27.9 and is about 3 pts (10%) below average with neutral now at 43.3 or 40% over average. This is a very strange set of numbers.
Well, I guess we don’t really need the Fed to raise rates...seems the market is doing the job all by itself. This week alone the 2 yr. has moved from .80% to .86%, the 3 yr. from .91 to 1.00%, the 5yr from1.18 to 1.28%, the 10yr from 1.63 to 1.75% and the long end 30 yr. from 2.34 to 2.46%. These are really meaningful moves and they are the backbone for strength in the US$. It’s nice to see, but earlier this week we saw the effect of a strong dollar on trade imbalances, not to mention the gold. While the Oil “seems to be immune to (or decoupled from) this dollar strength, that won’t last much longer either. As one of the smarter guys on CNBC's FAST MONEY said today, “It will last right up until it doesn’t, and then watch out!” CAM
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