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November 22, 2015,
Market Strategies Guide to Successful Trading
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
Week 47 was a bit confusing to me. I would have expected some weakness in the market following the debacle in Paris, but after some minor selling at the open we went on a tear that lasted all week. The Dow was up almost 600 or 3.35%, S&P500 up 66 or 3.27 and the Transports outperforming slightly up by 3.64%.
We had a slight loss of $72 bringing the YTD gains to $8072. We have only $320 of funds in use. The only open position is 4 HOG December $50 calls. We gave up the first half of that position on a 100% Rule execution. We sold the TLT (long bond ETF) for a nice profit and while it is my intention to get back on the short bond (TBT) position, I want to see some further confirmation that the Fed actually has the data to support the move. I’m also a little concerned about the flattening of the yield curve.
There is really nothing political to discuss since the current crop of fools is going through a normal process of attrition. The Sunday morning shows had little to add to the conversation for either party, and there was little new information from Paris, Mali, or any new hotspots.
This market clearly has a mind of its own and continues to “climb the wall of worry.” However, the pricing is clearly at perfection as can be seen whenever there is even the slightest miss on top or bottom lines or forward guidance.
I think that there is a pretty good rotation among groups. This is highlighted by the moves away from some of the most favored like cyber security or bio-pharma. Some of the health group has been hurt by the ACA and at least one, UNH has said it will withdraw from the process. But the point of the discussion is that while there may be very strong positive reasons for any group, the pricing of some are not acceptable at higher levels.
We traded CYBR and FEYE from breakouts in the mid $50’s and $30’s respectfully to the mid $70’s and $50’s in short order. Since then the group has suffered a break and move reducing prices by half. There are clearly reasons to be involved in this group, regardless of what Obama has “agreed” with the Chinese or the Russians. This is not a group that can be bought and held regardless of price….I find it attractive here but in what I consider a good sign for the overall market, it’s not a “buy at any price.” Like the above mentioned bio-pharma and health groups there are limits to what the market finds realistic expectations. CAM
New Trades Options account:
( 1) Buy 4 MAR December 75 Calls @ $ 0.95
( 2) Buy 6 CCOI January 35 Calls @ $ 0.85
( 3) Buy 15 TSYS December 5 Calls @ $ 0.10
All trades were based on your participation in the texting service to receive updates. Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters.
New trades $ 10,000 account...In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: OPTIONS ONLY: 1 January , 2 February. The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific. Trading is hypothetical. We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 Calls or Puts.For questions please call 702 650 3000. Closed out positions are found in previous letters dating back four years: Nov16th; 9th; 2nd; Oct 26th;19th;12th; 5th;Sept th;21st;14th;7th;Aug 31st; 24th; 17th;10th etc
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