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December 13, 2015
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
Week 50 produced a loss of $620 and brings our YTD down to $7596. Funds in use are $1,710.
This week was a debacle for the market. It seems that we never learn. The quest for yield ALWAYS ends badly with the banks and individuals going to lower and lower fundamental stability. It’s not like we haven’t seen this over and over again.
While many will say “this time is different,” it’s not. It’s always the same with a slightly different bent. The saying that history may not repeat itself, but it always seems to rhyme is also apt. Dodd Frank and all the other prohibitions for the banks have made the market weaker, not stronger. The banks are no longer there to be owners for their own accounts and this has drained the liquidity for the markets. Again, the liars and thieves in Washington have managed to legislate us into an entirely untenable position under the guise of protection. Hurry to close the barn door, the cows are gone.
Add to that the rush to not miss your opportunity to get your tax selling done and you have the makings of a real washout in stocks. On Wednesday and Thursday it looked like the oil stocks and the actual commodity might be “uncoupling” and in fact I believe it will. But the action of Friday was so widespread that it’s hard to tell if it might be taking place. There were only 38 members of the S&P500 (7.6%) up on the day, and many of those were utilities. This has the potential of being a blow-off with any follow through to the downside tomorrow.
Of course this is a Fed meeting week and all of the “data” has been positive, sort of…
While employment seems strong, there is a question of whether the Fed will take into consideration the “upset” in the financial markets. The closing of the Third Avenue junk bond fund has roiled the markets all around the world even though it represents only about 1% of that market. As the saying goes, there is never only one cockroach when you turn on the lights.
There will be no new trades tonight since we are at a particularly questionable place in the overall market. We broke the lows from 11/16 @ 2019 and 1990 on 10/14 looks vulnerable. The next important area is way down at 1965-70. We will decide whether to buy support or sell rallies as the week progresses…….CAM
All trades were based on your participation in the texting service to receive updates. Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters.
New trades $ 10,000 account...In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: OPTIONS ONLY: 1 January , 2 February. The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific. Trading is hypothetical. We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 Calls or Puts.For questions please call 702 650 3000. Closed out positions are found in previous letters dating back four years: Dec 7th; Nov30th; 23rd; 16th; 9th; 2nd; Oct 26th;19th;12th; 5th;Sept th;21st;14th;7th;Aug 31st; 24th; 17th;10th etc
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