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A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
January 31, 2016
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
Week 4 was a small loss of $193 bringing YTD performance down to $1201, in a month that left a great deal to be desired. We have only one open position in GLD; puts bought on Thursday before the overnight Bank of Japan announcement of 0% interest rates.
This week also saw the second “bad” numbers for oil that resulted in a dramatic RISE in prices when everyone would have thought that a build in reserves was a negative. We own SLCA in the big account, but the options were illiquid so we never got the calls. Silica produces “silica for the fracking and glass industries,” so the move up in Oil prices and the technical position of the stock has helped this trade greatly.
Resistance still exists at the same places we discussed last week. The range from 1950 to 1990 in the S&P500 is still only a half way retracement of the break from the highs in this index. We are slightly more overbought and I’d be surprised if we were able to mount and meaningful future advance at this point. The B.O.J. going to zero helps the markets the same way that Dhragi and our own QE helped our asset markets, but you can only “push on the string” so far. These programs don’t go on indefinitely and there is a price to be paid when they end. We have a short position in gold right now that may need selling for a small loss, but that was based on the strength in the US$. While I understand that money is being created all around us and theoretically that inflation will pick up, it still means that there is downward pressure on the price of anything that is quoted in dollars as long as it maintains its strength.
We also got stopped out of a position that I am issuing another buy order for this week.
This market is filled with great companies that have gotten hurt. One of those, I believe is Salesforce.com. This company has been rumored to be on several shopping lists and some of the suitors are big names. Last fall there was a discussion between Oracle and CRM and when they broke off Marc Benioff I believe, was quoted as saying “I want $100 and they want to pay $85” so nothing progressed. Now the talk after last weeks earnings from MSFT are “What a great combination those would make and Benioff would still be running the Company.” I don’t ever buy a stock only as a takeover candidate, but CRM is a real winner all on its own and Benioff is heralded as a great operator. Technically the stock in in an area of support around the $62-$64 area, is oversold, and my new buy price is published later in this letter…..CAM
Concerning the Central Banks: “Insanity is when you do the same thing over and over and it doesn’t work” From Albert Einstein
( 1 ) Buy 6 SIG February 110 Puts @ $ 1.65
All trades were based on your participation in the texting service to receive updates. Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters.
New trades $10,000 account...In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: OPTIONS ONLY: 1 January , 2 February. The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific. Trading is hypothetical. We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 Calls or Puts.For questions please call 702 650 3000. Closed out positions are found in previous letters dating back four years: Jan 25th; 18th; 11th; 4th; Dec 28th;21st;14th; 7th; Nov30th; 23rd; 16th; 9th; 2nd; Oct 26th;19th;12th; 5th;Sept th;21st;14th;7th;Aug 31st; 24th; 17th;10th etc
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