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A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
February 14, 2016
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
“I’m Confused !!”
Week 6 was another quiet one for this account, although there was plenty of action in the markets…..The move in gold of 7% was dramatic, as was the $3.23 rally in the oil on Friday. The problem with the oil was that even after Friday, oil still closed down on the week and the action in the oil stocks was really nothing to write home about. This week’s earnings reports in the oil companies are clearly not expected to be anything but dour.
We had a small loss of $180 bringing YTD back down to $2115 and we are using only $594 to support the new long of 6 VA 3/30 calls.
The problem for me is pretty simple; the very short term outlook is for a tradable rally that we may have already started with the bounce off S&P 1810. However, even though we closed near the highs for the week, we were still down. In fact we closed at the lowest point since February 2014. Again, confusing are the valuations on a P/E basis which have come down to reasonable levels. AAII consensus numbers are absurdly low reflecting overwhelming bearishness. Add to this the 2 days that China and the rest of the world have before we reopen on Tuesday and there are plenty of Black Swan type events that can shake the market hard…….I wasn’t kidding when I said I was confused….
While we know that the market likes to climb a “wall of worry,” but sometimes the worries are realized and we get pounded. The presidential politics and the uncertainty of an 8 member Supreme Court are also a problem. Plenty to think about….
Again this week I will not be putting out any new trades until I see if the Chinese pull a devaluation out of the hat while we are closed. If we do see this, I will probably try to be a buyer on a decline towards 1785 at the S&P500 200 week moving average….CAM
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