Covering High return Balanced Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
May 08, 2016
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
WHAT DO THE NUMBERS MEAN ??
Week 18 was a small loss of $204 bringing YTD gains to $4371. We did however add a couple of new positions and the funds in use number is now $1,485, consisting of positions in HL calls, NEM calls and the SIG puts.
The question of what the government numbers actually mean is brought into question this week. As I’ve noted in this space before, you should never make your investment decisions based on government numbers that will be “adjusted” several times until they are final. This primarily deals with the GDP numbers that as we all know are adjusted 3 or 4 times before the final, and sometimes (as in Q4) can actually go from positive to negative. However, what I am zeroing in on today are the employment numbers and their corresponding counterpart the first time claims for unemployment benefits. For the month of April the President and the Secretary of Labor pound the table with the 74th month in a row that we have created new jobs. Are they kidding ?? We did gain 160,000 new jobs. However, if you deduct the 247,000 new claims for Unemployment benefits it’s not quite the rosy picture portrayed. As noted last month, most of the jobs were of the minimum wage and Federal categories. Add to this another new low in the labor participant rate to 62.8% and it just gets worse.
With tech sector margins shrinking and topline growth practically non-existent you can see why retail has also declined.
The old “buying the dips” strategy ceases to work when we are not in a strong bull market. Oil price stability has helped but as I noted last week, strength and moves to the upside have their own dangers.
The fact is that the world is awash in money, and while we don’t wish to get in the way of the monetary policy the cracks are clearly starting to show. The A.A.I.I. confidence numbers are heavily skewed to Neutral with half of those polled (60% over average) and bullish way down at 20%. These neutrals can go either way on any news, good or bad, and I think will lead the way…
Due to the open positions and the tentative markets there will be no new trades tonight.
I am looking for trades like our purchase and covered write position in SUN to add some upside potential with limited risk…..CAM
All trades were based on your participation in the texting service to receive updates. Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters.
New trades $ 10,000 account...In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: OPTIONS ONLY: 1 January , 2 February. The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific. Trading is hypothetical. We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 Calls or Puts.For questions please call 702 650 3000. Closed out positions are found in previous letters dating back four years: May2nd; April 25th;18th;11th;4th; March 28th;21st;14th;7th; Feb 29th22nd; 15th; 8th; 1st;Jan 25th; 18th; 11th; 4th; Dec 28th;21st;14th; 7th; Nov30th; 23rd; 16th:
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