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Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
May 15, 2016
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
A Shake Shack in Every Macy’s ???
Week 19 was a small gain of $195 bringing YTD gains back up to $4566. Funds in use swelled to $2230 as we added new positions in FB calls and the XLF (financial ETF) puts while keeping balance in the gold and SIG. We only sold 1 (of 3) of the SIG puts on the 100% rule. I am usually buying on round numbers of options, but I only bought 3 as a way of managing the amount of capital at risk.
As noted here repeatedly, retail is a hot mess. While people are spending on home improvements and autos, they are clearly not buying any apparel (except on Amazon) and not going near a Macy’s, Kohls, Nordstrom, Dillards, or Gap. It will get worse as we move away from the malls in general. Simon Properties (SPG) made a new high on Tuesday @$214.80 and closed the week $20 lower on one of the most stunning technical moves (an outside week reversal) closing @ $196.49-14.33. This stock had a low in March 2009 of $22.82. This week’s move looks eerily like late October of last year when the stock topped @ 208 on the same pattern and spent 3 months in decline until making a bottom @ $176. Macerich is in the same boat but made its high back in March of last year@ $96 and has come down to some support around $75 but has already broken below its 200 day MA around $79 and can easily test support near $64.
So, this week all of the commentators were speaking about the demise of mall traffic, (which I first mentioned re:SIG in the $130-135 range) and their most oft mentioned issue was that malls need to be made attractive destinations, so….the best earnings of the week were from Shake Shack…the answer is clear…A Shake Shack in every Macy’s and Nordstrom store…..
As mentioned in my midweek note and Flash message this week, I really feel like we are approaching an important point here in the S&P500. 2000 is a round number and we have looked like a breaking point repeatedly only to turn on a dime and press higher. The markets are pretty thin and if we turn again, last week’s highs around 2085 or the 2000 level are easily attainable. And since we closed pretty much in the middle of that range, there’s not much to be gained by guessing which way we’ll go. It would not surprise me to see a test of 1900. Besides all of the “normal” trends, US$, Gold, Oil can all take a back seat in an election year where the “street” is stuck between someone we don’t want to win and someone who is an unknown quantity. The markets (everywhere) hate indecision, and this is clearly going to be a summer of just that…….CAM
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