Covering High return Balanced Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
August 21, 2016
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
Week 33 produced a small gain of $231 bringing the YTD gains to $6646. The HL spreads remain the same with a value of $250 per spread. We are back on the short side in the SIG, which has proven profitable the last several times we have traded it. Funds in use are $1,067. Our trades in FAST worked out well and I am looking at it again to get back into the stock.
The market internals continue to be more positive than expected, and the major indexes continue to consolidate gains above the breakout from last month. For a month with a bad reputation, August seems to just roll along. The VXX and UVXY seem to want to move higher but can’t seem to have more than a short rally for a day or two and then the gains seem to melt away. These indexes are not for long term positions since they have a downward bias. They measure the volatility moves on a daily basis but unless you have several consecutive days of movement in one direction they are not for the weak of heart.
As to the futures markets, the oil has had a monumental rise for 7 trading days taking it from $40 to $49 or plus 22%. This is dramatic and over extended and I will be adding to the position in the SCO (leveraged downside ETF) using the texting service. The gold market is not so positive right now as it is testing the lower end of its trading range. I would take a position against the lows, but a close under $1,336 would break it to test the area around $1,320.
The one area that has been indisputable on the “stocks” in this market is the missing of either earnings, or revenue or forward guidance. This week’s disaster was HAIN. Hain Celestial Group had moved from its lows in January @ $33 to march up to its new highs last Friday (8/12) over $56. However, when they came out on Tuesday with a statement; that they would have to delay the filing of their 10Q on time due to some questions about accounting and channel “stuffing.” The stock fell 40% overnight back to the high $30s. The point is that this market is priced for perfection and anything less is punished without mercy. While many investors think they can hide in some of the defensive, dividend paying stocks, they too need be wary. One look at what happened earlier this month in one of those stocks, BMY, on the failure of a clinical trial sent the stock down from $75 to $60. The $1.52 dividend doesn’t take much of the sting out of a 20% decline, and waiting 10 years to be even is not what most investors are looking for when it comes to safety…CAM
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