Covering High return Balanced Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
October 09, 2016
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
Week 40 produced a loss of $540 and a lot of confusion. The A.A.I.I. sentiment numbers are wildly neutral, with both bull and bear numbers below their historical averages. The neutral reading is 25% over its long term average showing that I’m not the only confused party. For that reason, as well as a quiet day on Monday (No bonds or banks but market open) I have no positions.
The big feature this week was the collapse of the British Pound against the US$ and the gold following suit. For the week the BP had a high of near $1.30 and a low of 1.20, closing mid-range @ 124.40, while the gold started near $1,322 and fell $80 to close $1,251-65.
As I have warned in this space for quite a while here, the market and its internals are seriously out of sync in both directions. We have days when the market is down with good adv/dec and volume and up days with the opposite. Friday was a good example; while we were down over 100 on the Dow most of the day, we rallied to even and up for a nanosecond before the close, all the while the internals were terrible. Both the NYSE and NASDAQ were negative at the close by better than 2:1. Remember that this is the month when we’ve had some pretty ugly collapses.
I have been looking at a lot of charts this weekend and the majority of them look like they are in consolidations. Many are oversold, and I’d like to be a buyer, but many just don’t have any real catalysts to break them out. We will be getting new earnings reports and more than a few have started with lowering expectations. A look at the chart of HON (weekly) is an excellent example. A long-term uptrend with a flat top and then a quick pull-back, looks similar to the GE. Both the Dow and S&P have had a series of lower highs recently. Three weeks ago they confirmed guidance. They have had no real organic growth and like many others, have run out of places to cut costs (people) and now have to pay the piper. The $2.30 dividend didn’t help anyone who paid $115-117 lately when it gapped down $9 on Friday. What happened in 3 weeks?
The point is that they are not alone. As heard here repeatedly, “you can’t cut your way to prosperity,” and the growth isn’t there. The path of least resistance is the downside in this “priced for perfection” market, and I intend to take advantage of it on rallies…CAM
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