Home Sales Dipped 1.2% From May to June, the Largest Late-Spring Decline Since At Least 2012
Still, homes sold at their fastest pace and for their highest prices on record
SEATTLE, July 15, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Seasonally-adjusted home sales fell 1.2% from May to June, according to a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. This marks the largest drop at this time of year on record through at least 2012, suggesting that the housing market frenzy may have peaked for the year. Homes sold for their highest prices and at their fastest pace on record, but measures for market speed and competition seem to be at or near peak levels for this year.
The following measures all hit new records in June according to Redfin's data, which goes back through 2012:
Pandemic lockdowns significantly slowed homebuying and selling, and they slightly depressed sale prices in June 2020. That means the year-over-year trends for home prices, pending sales, closed sales and new listings are exaggerated. For more context, Redfin's full report includes extra charts that better highlight recent changes.
"In June we entered a new phase of the housing market," said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. "Home sales are starting to stall because prices have increased beyond what many buyers can afford. This summer I expect home prices to stabilize as more homeowners list their homes, realizing they likely won't fetch a higher price by waiting longer to sell. But as rents rise, homeownership will become appealing to more people, and home sales will rev back up by 2022."
Median sale prices increased from a year earlier in all of the 85 largest metro areas Redfin tracks. The largest price increase was in Austin, TX (+43%), where a typical 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom suburban Austin home sold for about $485,000 last month, up from about $340,000 a year earlier.
"Home price growth over the last few months in Austin has been astronomical," said Redfin Austin market manager Jennifer Hoffer. "There has been a perfect storm of factors driving up price here with tech firms like Tesla, Amazon and Oracle announcing expansions in Austin, celebrities relocating here, and overall a whole lot of really great press for the area."
The next biggest price increases were seen in Lake County, IL (+31%) and Phoenix (+30%). The smallest price increase was posted in San Francisco, where prices were up 2.6% from a year ago.
Seasonally-adjusted home sales in June were up 22% from a year earlier, but down 1.2% from May. Compared to June 2020, home sales rose in all but four of the 85 largest metro areas Redfin tracks. The biggest declines in sales were in Fort Worth (-8%), Dallas (-3%) and San Antonio (-3%). The largest gains were in places that had the most abrupt slowdown of home sales in June 2020, including Philadelphia (+100%), San Francisco (+96%), and Honolulu (+96%).
Seasonally adjusted active listings—the count of all homes that were for sale at any time during the month—fell 28% year over year to their lowest level on record. Only two of the 85 largest metros tracked by Redfin posted a year-over-year increase in the number of seasonally adjusted active listings of homes for sale: Milwaukee (+4%) and New York (+1%). The biggest year-over-year declines in active housing supply in June were in Baton Rouge, LA (-57%), North Port, FL (-52%) and Greensboro, NC (-46%).
Seasonally adjusted new listings of homes for sale were up 8% in June from a year earlier. New listings fell from a year ago in 15 of the 85 largest metro areas. The biggest declines were in Baton Rouge (-51%), Allentown, PA (47%) and St. Louis, MO (-41%). New listings rose the most from a year ago in San Jose, CA (+38%), Tacoma, WA (+35%) and Milwaukee (+32%).
Although sales are declining, measures of completed home sales reflected the most competitive market on record in June. The typical home that sold in June went under contract in 14 days—less than half as much time as a year earlier, when homes sold in a median 39 days.
In June, 56% of homes sold above list price, the largest share on record. The average sale-to-list price ratio continued to surge, hitting a record high of 102.6%. This measure typically peaks in June but was still climbing sharply through the end of the month. The latest weekly housing market data through July 4 does show the sale-to-list ratio beginning to taper off, so June may still be the peak this year.
To read the full report, including charts and additional metro-level data highlights, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/june-housing-market-home-sales-decline/
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email email@example.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.
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