Hot or Not? Redfin Reviews its Hottest Neighborhood Predictions and Identifies 10 Areas that are Just Heating Up
Redfin Names First Hill in Seattle, Golden Gate Heights in San Francisco and Bucknall in San Jose the hottest neighborhoods to close out 2017
In January, we published our 5th annual Hottest Neighborhoods report, identifying the 10 neighborhoods across the country that, based on Redfin.com user data and insights from local Redfin agents, were likely to see fast growth in home values this year. Now we’re checking in to see how those neighborhoods have performed compared with their surrounding areas, and to identify some more places that are now showing signs of hotness.
To take the temperature of the 10 Hottest Neighborhoods of 2017, we used Redfin Estimate data to compare growth in the median value of each neighborhood’s off-market homes to that of off-market homes throughout its metro area from February through July 2017. If a neighborhood outperformed its metro area in off-market home-value growth, it was deemed “hot.” A neighborhood was labeled “warm” if its home-value growth was equal to that of its metro area. Neighborhoods that posted home-value growth below that of the metro area were considered “cool.”
|Rank||Neighborhood||Metro Area||Growth in Median Off-Market Home Value*||Metro-Area Growth in Median Off-Market Home Value*||Temperature||Median Sale Price**||Avg Sale-to-List Price Ratio**||% of Homes Sold Above List Price**|
|3||Serra||San Jose, CA||-1.0%||5.3%||Cool||$1,920,000||110.1%||85.1%|
|4||Somerset||Los Angeles, CA||3.7||3.7||Warm||$580,000||98.1%||33.3%|
|7||Colonial Village||Washington, D.C.||6.1%||2.2%||Hot||$819,000||99.5%||32.1%|
|8||Hollywood Park||Sacramento, CA||6.6%||6.3%||Hot||$362,500||99.7%||46.2%|
|10||Treme||New Orleans, LA||-4.6%||3.6%||Cool||$231,700||93.6%||15.9%|
Our top pick for the Hottest Neighborhood of 2017 was Bushrod in Oakland, and it delivered. The median off-market home value determined by the Redfin Estimate grew 8.9 percent from February to July in Bushrod, while Oakland’s metro-area values grew by 4.9 percent. About three out of four homes that sold in Bushrod during this period sold for more than their asking price, with the average home selling for 20.4 percent above list price.
“Bushrod is nestled between Berkeley and Oakland and the saying we keep hearing from locals is, ‘Bushrod is closer to San Francisco than San Francisco is,’” said Redfin San Francisco agent Tom Hendershot.“Location reigns supreme in real estate, and it’s easy to hop onto Interstate 80 to get to downtown San Francisco in 20 minutes without traffic. Bushrod is 10 minutes from the heart of Berkeley, as well. Because of this convenience, it’s not uncommon for bidding wars to push offers $100,000 over the listing price.”
Woodridge in Seattle, Edgeworth in Boston and Greenfield in Denver, all came out cool, with home values growing slower than their metro areas. Two hoods saw dips in their off-market home values over the last six months; Serra in Sunnyvale (-1.0 percent) and Treme in New Orleans (-4.6 percent) posted declines in off-market home values over the last six months while their metro areas grew by 5.3 and 3.6 percent, respectively.
Still, Serra was hot by other measures, with more than four out of five homes that sold in July going for more than their asking price and the average home selling at 10.1 percent above asking.
“Drastic change in home values is not that common in areas like Serra where the median sale price is just shy of $2 million,” said Redfin Silicon Valley real estate agent Kalena Masching. “Competition has remained fierce in Serra’s more affordable price range because the area has maintained its status as one of Sunnyvale’s most desirable neighborhoods. We have been in bidding wars with all-cash offers, sold homes for $50,000 over the list price and waived contingencies to win in the area over the past six months.”
Treme in New Orleans, however, was cool by most measures over the past six months. Only 15.9 percent of homes in Treme sold above the list price and there was an average sale to list ratio of 93.6 percent.
“Treme attracts a lot of interest from homebuyers because it has remained affordable and it’s located right on the border of the French Quarter,” said Redfin New Orleans real estate agent Caren Morgan. “What has kept it from being hot this year is many of the homes are considered stale inventory – meaning they’ve been on the market for 90 days or more. Buyers are initially drawn in by the relatively low price point, but ultimately move their search to another area where homes have the modern finishes they’re really looking for and less need for repairs. Very few homes that have hit the market in Treme this year have been updated to meet most buyers’ move-in ready criteria.”
Ten Hot Neighborhoods from the First Half of the Year
While we were analyzing Redfin Estimate off-market home value data from February through July of this year, we decided to rank the neighborhoods that had the largest percentage point increase in off-market home value compared to that of its metro area.
|Rank||Neighborhood||Metro Area||Growth in Median Off-Market Home Value*||Metro-Area Growth in Median Off-Market Home Value*||% Point Change||Median Sale Price**||Avg Sale-to-List Price Ratio**||% of Homes that Sold Above List Price**|
|1||East Lake Terrace||Atlanta, GA||24.4%||4.6%||19.9||$182,500||99.9%||34.0%|
|2||Gert Town||New Orleans, LA||22.8%||3.6%||19.2||$220,000||93.6%||0.0%|
|4||Hillbrook / Mayfair / Mahaning Heights||Washington, D.C.||20.8%||2.2%||18.6||$315,000||99.1%||31.4%|
|7||North Shoreview||San Francisco, CA||21.2%||3.6%||17.6||1,063,000||115.2%||95.2%|
|8||Genesis||West Palm Beach, FL||15.0%||-2.6%||17.6||$150,000||97.4%||26.1%|
|9||Walden||Fort Lauderdale, FL||20.5%||3.0%||17.5||$127,000||96.6%||16.7%|
|10||East Central City||Columbia, SC||34.5%||17.3%||17.2||$30,000||83.0%||0.0%|
Leading the pack of neighborhoods was East Lake Terrace, which has become one of the most popular destinations for Millennial homebuyers in metro Atlanta. Off-market home values there increased 24.4 percent, while values in metro Atlanta area grew 4.6 percent from February to July 2017.
“East Lake Terrace is hot because it’s one of the few neighborhoods near Decatur that has remained affordable, so people are flocking there to buy homes before prices increase,” said Redfin Atlanta real estate agent Sonia Walker. “Locals enjoy relaxing and grilling with friends at Buena Vista Lake, and East Lake Terrace has a beautiful community garden where people can rent plots. The neighborhood is also a short commute to downtown Decatur where there are lots of shops, restaurants and fun bars.”
Another hotspot was Gert Town in New Orleans, which saw 22.8 percent growth in off-market home values over the past six months compared to 3.6 percent in metro New Orleans.
“Gert Town is near Xavier University of Louisiana and it has become an investor’s paradise as people build new homes or buy and renovate with plans to rent the properties on sites like Airbnb and VRBO,” said Redfin New Orleans agent Caren Morgan. “The neighborhood is within walking distance to downtown and the French Quarter, with easy access to several nearby parks. The area is also really close to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, so it’s easy to root for the Saints in person on gameday!”
Redfin Predicts 10 Hottest Neighborhoods to Close out the Year
Redfin’s Hottest Neighborhoods is a prediction based on the most recent growth we’ve seen in home-listing page views and favorites on Redfin.com. We checked in with local Redfin agents to see what has been driving these trends and what makes these areas desirable. Here are 10 places we predict to be hot to close out the year:
Median Sale Price: $425,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 105.4%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price: 73.0%
“First Hill is sandwiched between the ever-popular Capitol Hill and the Yesler Terrace redevelopment, with easy access to downtown,” said Seattle Redfin agent Jessie Culbert. “With Whole Foods opening in 2018 at the Danforth apartment building, the area is becoming even more desirable. Buyers tend to like the more quiet, tree-lined streets in this neighborhood and historic mansions that hearken back to Seattle’s heritage. All we need is more inventory; resales at Luma condos, which sold out in 2016, have been brisk, signaling high demand for new construction.”
Median Sale Price: $1,595,500
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 120.3%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price: 86.7%
“Golden Gate Heights borders the very popular Inner Sunset neighborhood,” said San Francisco Redfin agent Miriam Westberg. “It may be a slightly longer walk to area restaurants and shops, but homes are often more affordable and can boast great views of the Marin Headlands and the Golden Gate Bridge. The neighborhood has easy access to public transportation, Golden Gate Park, Irving Street and the West Portal commercial core.”
Median Sale Price: $1,350,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 115.1%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price: 90.9%
“Bucknall has been on the rise for quite some time, and we don’t see that changing anytime soon,” said Redfin San Jose agent Jennifer Tollenaar. “Bucknall has a highly ranked school system and is in close proximity to downtown San Jose. There is plenty of shopping and dining nearby, and it’s easy to jump on the interstate for weekend getaways.”
Median Sale Price: $947,500
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 125.7%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price: 82.1%
“The Glenview neighborhood is a popular choice for Oakland homebuyers given its proximity to public commuter buses into San Francisco, a popular commercial district, the highly-ranked local elementary school and charming mix of craftsman bungalows,” said Redfin Oakland agent Neal Conatser. “Once touted by San Francisco Magazine as a neighborhood for ‘finding a deal,’ its desirability is no longer a secret and, like many surrounding neighborhoods, competition and price points are expected to rise appreciably.”
Median Sale Price: $531,500
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 102.6%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price: 61.9%
“The Bodger Park-El Camino Village neighborhood has become a hot spot of the South Bay and is one of the few remaining affordable pockets for first-time homebuyers as Silicon Beach’s tech boom spreads south,” said Redfin Los Angeles agent Debbie Martin. “Its proximity to freeways, LAX, the beach and shopping, as well as and the Raytheon, Northrup Grumman and SpaceX offices, are attracting a wave of first-time homebuyers to the area. Because of the highly rated schools in the area, many people choose to renovate the 1950s three-bedroom homes that dominate this area.”
Median Sale Price: $835,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 96.5%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price: 10.6%
“Mission Bay has gorgeous beach-front homes near to the bay, beach, boardwalk as well as many shops and restaurants,” said Redfin San Diego agent Rebecca Roman. “Outdoor activities nearby such as beach volleyball, surfing, kayaking, sailing and stand-up paddleboarding make it a major tourist destination and a true So-Cal beach town. The location also makes properties in Mission Bay ideal for those looking for some extra income from AirBnB or VRBO.”
Median Sale Price: $315,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 99.1%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price: 31.4%
“Deanwood is becoming more popular for a number of reasons,” said Redfin Washington, D.C. agent Steve Centrella. “First, the neighborhood has access to two metro stations, providing quick commutes to Capitol Hill and downtown. Second, there are a large number of single family homes that are more affordable than similarly-sized homes in other parts of the city. You can get more home for your money, while staying within the city borders.”
Median Sale Price: $312,900
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 100.2%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price: 43.6%
“Between hot new restaurants opening and higher end new homes being built, plus highly ranked schools, West Minnehaha is increasingly popular among buyers,” said Redfin Vancouver agent Stephen Mecham. “Not only is West Minnehaha a quick drive to downtown Vancouver; it also has lots of parks, trails and other outdoor recreational amenities. Vancouver is on the Oregon and Washington border, so it’s easy to enjoy tax-free shopping in Portland, while having no state income taxes as a Washington resident.”
Median Sale Price: $272,500
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 99.2%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price: 23.8%
“Powered by a lot of fast-selling new construction, Country Lakes has drawn quite a bit of attention from buyers recently, and we expect that to continue throughout the year,” said Redfin Chicago agent Michael Rothe. “Homes in Country Lakes are within a mile from the train, and there are a lot of walking paths to make the trek peaceful. Homes in Country Lakes are near highly ranked schools, and the neighborhood is only a half mile from I-88 so getting to all major highways is a breeze.”
Median Sale Price: $656,450
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 105.3%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price: 78.9%
“Proximity to transportation, an easy commute to Boston and overall affordability are the major factors driving homebuyers to Lawrence Estates,” said Redfin Medford agent Stephen Cafferky. “Many homes have large yards and are minutes away from route 93, and the commuter train that can take you to North Station and Medford Square. The neighborhood is laid back, close to everything and a great place for people who are looking to escape city life but still have the itch to get downtown quickly.”
Looking for more Redfin Hottest Neighborhoods? We examined 46 metropolitan areas and provided the top three hottest neighborhoods in each area. Click here to download the full list.
* Period of time examined was February through July 2017
** Values from July 2017
Note: Median sale price, average sale-to-list price ratio and percent of homes that sold above list price for the hottest neighborhoods to close out the year were from July 2017.
- Bushrod, First Hill, Hot Or Not, Hottest Neighborhoods, Mid-Year Hottest Neighborhoods, Redfin Hottest Neighborhoods, San Francisco, Seattle, Woodridge