Comerica Bank's California Index Declines

Comerica Bank's California Index Declines

DALLAS, June 28, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index decreased by 0.2 points in April to 123.9. April's reading is 26 points, or 27 percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.7. The index averaged 121.2 points in 2017, two and three-fifths points above the average for all of 2016. March's reading was revised to 124.1.

Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index ticked down in April. This follows a slowdown in momentum in February and March. The sub-indexes were mixed for April. Five of the eight components were negative for the month including unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, industrial electricity demand, total state trade and the Dow Jones Tech Stock Index. Two of the eight components were unchanged in April including nonfarm payroll employment and hotel occupancy. There was only one positive component for the month which was house prices. This is not the first time that our California Index has gone negative in recent history. In the past 24 months, the index has declined five times and gone sideways once. However, this is the first time that the loss of momentum appears to be widespread across the sub-indexes. The stalwart for the California economy coming out of the recession was steady job gains. Yet, nonfarm payrolls have added just 86,600 jobs in the first five months of 2018. This is the weakest start to a year in terms of job growth since 2011. There is growing uncertainty surrounding the impact of trade disputes as the U.S. and its major trading partners announce additional tariff and counter-tariff measures. The technology sector is one area where we are seeing that uncertainty play out as stock prices exhibit volatility heading into the summer.

The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Bank, with locations in the key California markets of San Francisco and the East Bay, San Jose, Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento, Santa Cruz/Monterey, and the Inland Empire, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA). Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned into three major business segments: the Business Bank, the Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships and helping businesses and people be successful.

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SOURCE Comerica Bank