Farmer sentiment drifts lower as trade uncertainty hangs over agriculture
Farmer sentiment drifts lower as trade uncertainty hangs over agriculture |
| [06-January-2026] |
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., Jan. 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Farmer sentiment dipped slightly in December, with the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropping 3 points to 136. The decline was attributable to a softening in producers' long-term outlook. The Future Expectations Index fell 4 points from the previous month to 140, while the Current Conditions Index remained steady at 128. Crop producers expressed increased concern about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports as Brazil expands its role in global markets, contributing to the more cautious outlook. The survey was conducted Dec. 1-5, 2025. Producers' expectations for their farms' financial performance remained mostly unchanged in December. The Farm Financial Performance Index inched up 2 points to 94, reflecting more producers expecting this year's farm financial performance to be similar to last year's. The Farm Capital Investment Index also rose 2 points to 58. Despite this increase, most producers (60%) still see December as a bad time to make large farm investments. "Even with some stability in expectations for their own operations, producers remain cautious about longer-term decisions," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "Uncertainty surrounding agricultural trade and growing concern about global competitiveness continue to influence how farmers think about the future." Farmers' views on U.S. agricultural exports were mixed in December. When asked a generic question about the long-term outlook for agricultural exports, producers offered one of their most optimistic readings of the year, with only 5% expecting exports to decline over the next five years. However, their perspective shifted when the focus turned specifically to soybeans, a major agricultural export. Thirteen percent of corn and soybean growers said they expect soybean exports to decrease in the next five years, up from 8% in November. At the same time, the percentage of growers expecting soybean exports to increase fell from 47% in November to 39% in December. Rising competition from Brazil is on producers' minds: 84% of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports relative to Brazil, with 45% reporting they were very concerned. Farmers remained optimistic about farmland values in December. Both the Short-Term and Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations indices stayed relatively steady, each increasing by just 1 point from November. This small gain pushed the short-term index to 117, making it 11 points higher than its September low and 7 points above last year's level. The long-term index reached 166, a new record high, and now stands 20 points above its September low and 11 points higher than this time last year. Producers' confidence in the use of tariffs to strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy continued to decline in December. Just 54% of respondents said tariffs would have a positive effect, down from 58% in October and 59% in November. Uncertainty about the long-run impact of tariff policies also grew, with 19% of producers expressing uncertainty in December compared to 17% the month before. Since this question was first introduced in the spring, the percentage of producers uncertain about tariff effects has more than doubled. Despite this, overall optimism about the country's direction improved noticeably. In December, 75% of respondents said the U.S. was headed in the "right direction," the highest reading recorded since the question was added to the barometer survey in July. About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture About CME Group CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. About Purdue University Sources and Notes block: CME-G
SOURCE CME Group | ||
Company Codes: NASDAQ-NMS:CME |
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